六　结论

通过对27个国家1960—2010年面板数据的回归分析，我们发现城市人均用水与人均GDP呈N形关系，即城市人均用水量随着经济发展先增加后减少，最后趋于平稳。这一关系也恰恰吻合了文献中库兹涅茨曲线的特性，因此我们将其命名为水库兹涅茨曲线。基于现代城市水管理的概念，我们定义了两种不同的水相关政策：水的效率政策和水的效能政策。效率政策的设计和实施主要是为了提高城市水系统的整体效率。而效能政策则是用于提高整个城市水系统的效能，即最小化对外部环境的负面影响。最优的城市水管理系统应该达到高效的使用水资源并对环境无任何负面影响。我们进一步考察政策因素对城市人均用水量，即水库兹涅茨曲线的影响。我们发现，效率政策和效能政策对城市人均用水量的减少有着积极的作用。我们的研究不仅填补了相关领域的空白，同时也为各国，尤其是发展中国家的水政策的制定和实施提供了可靠的依据。

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