CHAPTER 2 Moving Toward a Future That Rewards Clarity—But Punishes Certainty

LOOKING BACKWARD FROM THE FUTURE WILL SEEM unnatural for many leaders today—they are so present focused—but the tools for thinking about the future systematically are improving rapidly, and the need for looking backward from the future is growing. Young people—especially those who have grown up as gamers—will have a competitive advantage in this future. It will become possible to look even further into the future, to see deeper patterns and directions of change, and to avoid simplistic thinking.

SURPRISE: Ten-year forecasting is easier than one-year forecasting.

People often ask me: “How can you do ten-year forecasting? I can’t even forecast one year ahead!” Surprisingly, it is actually easier to look long than to look close in. There is too much noise in the present.

The more complex the future, the further ahead leaders will need to look. Given the external future forces of the next decade, leaders will need to expand their leadership literacy by looking really long. Fortunately, the next generation of leaders will be gamefully prepared for this to happen.

Leaders will face an increasingly uncertain future, even while many of those they lead will crave certainty. Looking long and working backward from the future can help sift out the shards of certainty from which leaders can create clarity. This chapter considers what will happen in the years ahead when we look backward from the future.

Let’s begin with an example of a ten-year forecast that is almost certain to happen: In ten years sensors will be everywhere, sensors will be very cheap, many sensors will be connected, and some sensors will be in our bodies. Most importantly, we will also have improved ability to make sense out of all this new sensor data.

Ubiquitous sensors will disrupt how leaders lead. The world of sensors is going to give us an incredible amount of data and the tools to make sense of all that data. If the sensors are accurate, they will create really interesting opportunities and really interesting challenges. If the sensors aren’t accurate and people trust the misinformation that is generated, that will create different challenges. Corporations will have to respond to misinformation, but people may be skeptical about their responses. The new world of sensors will be both more revealing and more confusing. Sensors will both enhance and corrode trust—depending on how they are used.

Over a ten-year period, this forecast about sensors is difficult to refute—even though it is uncertain just what will happen with sensors in the next year or two, let alone who will make money from whatever happens. We need to look into the future with an open mind, but the challenge for leaders is to come back from that forecast future with insight and a plan of action in the present.

In the case of this forecast, there is clarity about where sensors are going but uncertainty about how we will get there and what it will mean once we have ubiquitous sensors. If you want to know about the future of sensors, don’t go to the Consumer Electronics Show—the giant Las Vegas extravaganza held each January—because you will be overwhelmed by the present, and there is just too much noise in the present.

By looking backward from the future, leaders will be forced to come to terms with the existence of other futures and recognize that people will live differently then. Certainly, some things will not change, even in the most uncertain of times. But leaders will need to distinguish between what will change and what will not, between what should change and what should not.

Jean Hagan designed Institute for the Future’s logo on an Etch-a-Sketch. If you look at it up close, it is hard to read. For most people, the logo becomes clearer the farther they hold it away—just like thinking about the future. The logo in the upper right of Figure 7 is much easier to read than the larger logo, even though it is much smaller. This logo embodies the brand story of Institute for the Future.