Abstract

With the forces of globalization and acceleration of social transition in China，various traditional and non-traditional，internal and external security risks in tourism destinations，constantly against the current sharing living space of the public and tourists.Increasingly frequent tourism security incidents and evidence seems to show that tourism destinations are entering a“risk world”.Once the possibility of tourism security risks become a reality，the stability of tourism destination system will bring catastrophic consequences.Although the threat of security risks in tourism destination is increasing，our country has explicitly put forward to：tourism security risk prevention as the key point and actively promote“safety and security tourism destination” strategy.In the context of this reality and institutional，tourism safety and security assessment issues in the tourism destinations that need to be academic attention，also need to give scientific theory to explain and practical operation.

Therefore，this study attempts to secure the connotation of tourism safety and security as a starting point，use analysis framework of both objective and subjective Angle，trying to answer two research questions，how to objectively evaluate the tourism safety ＆ security situation of tourism destination？ Tourists how to evaluate the safety situation of tourism destination？ This is also making a theoretical interpretation for the tourism safety and security assessment of tourism destinations.In specific research process，by using the theory of ecosystem health，and social vulnerability theory，construct the tourism security objective evaluation model by resistance-invasion degree of tourism destination，based on the expected differences theory，construction of the subjective evaluation model by tourist safety expectations-tourists safety perception of tourism destination.At the same time，by collecting respectively diachronic statistical data and survey data，using the method of multivariate statistical analysis，the tourism security objective evaluation model and the subjective safety evaluation model for fitting test，after fitting test and application of evaluation model，measuring the degree of tourism security index and the index of tourists' sense of safety，based on the evaluation index，and then make a judgment of tourism safety and security early warning.Based on the above logic，this research gets the following conclusion：

From an objective point of tourism safety and security in destination：Tourism safety and security in destination is the result of the game both intrusion and resistance.（1）Tourism security resistance can be measured by the three main dimensions of its vigor，structure and resilience.Economic capacity and safety inputs constitutes a security vigor in tourism destinations，Destination security structure is constituted by security organization，security management，security facilities and a security environment，tourism destination resilient force is constituted by social security and emergency management capabilities.Among them，tourism emergency management ability is the biggest role to tourism security resistance in tourism destination，followed by economic capacity，and tourism security guarantee is the weakest role for tourism security resistance.（2）Tourism system intrusion risks，mainly from external invasion of natural disasters risk and internal accidents invasion risk，public health incidents and social security incidents in tourism destination.By Verified，the degree of natural disasters invasion is the greatest impact on tourism security intrusions，followed by the impact of public health incidents and accidents intrusion risk is the lowest threats to tourism security in tourism destination.（3）Overall，from 2003 to 2013，the tourism security resistance showed a rising trend in 31 cities nationwide tourism destination，Beijing，Shanghai，Chongqing，Chengdu，Guangzhou，Kunming，and Xi'an is more prominent.However，the degree of tourism invasion in the 31 cities nationwide tourism destination was significant difference.The larger invasion cities like Shanghai，Guangzhou，Chongqing，Zhengzhou，Lanzhou，and Chongqing in the first place.But the tourism security risks of Chongqing，Shanghai and other cities in reducing trend.（4）By the tourism security prediction of 31 cities nationwide tourism destination in 2014 and 2015 years，found that in 2015，Chongqing，Shanghai and Guangzhou are in a poor state of moderate warning.Changchun，Tianjin，Shijiazhuang，Zhengzhou，Wuhan，Changsha，in a general state of early warning，In the security state of only Beijing，Hohhot，Yinchuan，Taiyuan，Jinan，Xining，Guiyang and Haikou.Other cities are in a more security state.

In terms of subjective perspective of tourism safety ＆ security：tourists' sense of safety is subjective response of tourists' safety expectation and perception.（1）Tourists' sense of safety should be interpreted from two aspects of tourists' psychological sense of safety and tourists' social sense of safety.Tourists' psychological sense of safety mainly includes three dimensions，interpersonal safety，subjective control safety and self-identity safety.Tourists' social sense of safety mainly includes five dimensions，social security conditions，environmental security，service elements of security，information security and security of regional culture.（2）By verified，tourists' security expectation has a positive effect on tourists' security perception，tourists' safety expectation has a negative effect on tourists' safety cognitive evaluation，tourists' safety perception has a positive effect on tourists' safety cognitive evaluation，tourists' safety expectation has a negative effect on tourists' sense of safety，tourists' safety perception has a positive effect on tourists' sense of safety，tourists' safety cognitive evaluation has a positive effect on tourists' sense of safety.（3）From random sample data analysis found that，the index of tourists' social sense of safety in the poor state，need to be published moderate orange warning lights，the index of tourists' psychological sense of safety in moderate warning poor state，the index of tourists' sense of safety in a relatively poor state.（4）Through comparison both the degree of tourism safety and the index of tourists' sense of safety in sample tourism destinations，found that the objectively and subjectively index of tourism safety in tourism destinations is not fully balanced.

On the basis of the above conclusion，this study finally proposed policy recommendations for tourism safety and security governance and management：Formed the third party assessment mechanism of tourism safety and security，Construct early warning mechanism for tourism safety and security，strengthen the tourism safety and security management foundation，form a normalized management mechanism.Sound tourism security public service system，specification tourism emergency disposal procedures，to promote tourism emergency rescue mechanism construction.Strengthen tourism safety and security cooperation，and promote tourism safety and security collaborative governance.Perfect tourism security risk mitigation mechanism，to form feedback mechanism for tourism safety and security evaluation by government-led，sector coordination and all the people involved in the tourism destinations.

Keywords： Tourism Safety and Security Evaluation；The Degree of Tourism security；Tourists' Sense of Safety；Tourism Destination；Tourism Safety and Security Early-warning