前言

作为缓解消费者流动性紧张的重要举措之一，消费信贷主要以财富为中介来影响农户消费。传统研究也大多以效用最大化公理来探讨消费信贷对农户消费决策的影响，而忽略了借款者基于环境变化产生的心理预期活动对其消费决策的影响。事实上，农户借款者在获得信贷融资支持后会根据各种影响消费决策变量的期望值来调整其消费支出，也就是说，借款者会对金融财富的未来价值产生预期，从而采取适应财富变化的消费决策行为。虽然行为经济学关注到了农户心理活动对其消费决策的影响，然而却并没有关注到借款者会产生财富预期及其对农户消费决策的影响。究其原因，学术界对农户消费决策机制的探讨主要基于理性人假设和效用最大化公理，而忽略了借款者会因经济环境变化而产生复杂的心理活动，进而对其消费决策产生影响。

事实上，消费信贷不仅通过会计账户产生物质（货币）财富，还可以通过心理账户产生财富预期。对于农户而言，其往往面临着收入不稳定、流动性约束等复杂的消费环境，因此在金融活动中，借款者会根据经济环境变化而对未来有无还款能力或者违约（履约）风险等不确定性经济后果（Kahneman把这种不确定性后果被称为“前景”）进行预期，同时会建立心理账户对不同前景下的金融财富价值进行重新估价（价值判断），最终形成财富预期。因此，财富预期主要满足农户借款者的心理需求下金融财富价值的另一种表现形式，是在心理账户中对消费信贷进行价值判断的结果。可以说，财富预期是财富内涵和外延的拓展，财富预期结果也是决策者对未来有无违约风险或还款能力的一种研判。心理账户作为监测、控制消费者行为的一种特定机制，会在心理上根据估价结果对消费进行预算调节，并设置要达到的消费目标。因此，借款者通过心理账户形成财富预期会影响农户消费决策，故对消费函数的构建不应该将借款者财富预期这一内生变量做外生化处理，只有将财富预期纳入行为决策函数才能对农户行为决策过程做出最合乎实际的解释。但消费信贷的财富预期是什么？财富预期如何产生及量化？财富预期影响农户消费的作用机制是什么？消费信贷对农户消费是否有财富预期效应？现有研究对这些问题并未给予明确的回答，而对这些问题的回答有利于更好释放消费金融对消费的影响效应。

基于此，为深入剖析在金融活动过程中消费信贷的财富预期产生过程及财富预期对农户消费决策的影响，本书清晰界定了消费信贷财富预期的内涵和外延，构建了财富预期的产生机制及量化方法，厘清了财富预期影响农户消费决策的逻辑链条。据此，本书使用Probit等计量分析工具探讨了消费信贷的财富预期影响农户消费的总体效应，分别从静态与动态的时间维度、生存型支出和改善型支出的结构维度来考察消费信贷的财富预期对农户消费的影响。同时，考虑到我国区域及农村内部差异，本书进一步探讨了消费信贷的财富预期对农户消费影响效应的异质性，从东中西不同区域和高中低不同收入群体来分析消费信贷财富预期对农户消费的影响。总之，本书基于理论分析框架提出研究假设，以CFPS数据为统计分析基础。最后，本书的主要结论和创新点如下：

一、主要结论

（1）提出了消费信贷会产生财富预期的思想。农户借款者在获得融资支持后，会担心未来是否违约的不确定性后果（前景），从而建立心理账户对不同前景下的金融财富价值进行重新估价，最终形成财富预期。总之，借款者会依据经济环境变化而对金融财富进行估价从而产生财富预期。

（2）明确了消费信贷财富预期的内涵及量化方法。财富预期是心理账户对消费信贷进行估价的结果，主要满足决策者心理需求，是财富内涵和外延的一种拓展。从财富预期创造过程看，财富预期规模的大小主要和参照点的选取以及沉没成本大小有关。

（3）构建了消费信贷财富预期效应发挥的逻辑框架。财富预期主要通过参照点效应和沉没成本效应来影响消费规模，通过对财富预期的认知属性和情绪反应来影响消费内容选择、财富认知或乐观情绪时，农户倾向于改善型支出；而通过对财富预期的认识属性和情绪反应来影响债务认知或悲观情绪时，农户则倾向于生存型支出。

（4）消费信贷的财富预期对农户消费有积极影响。消费信贷的财富预期对农户消费决策产生了积极的影响效应，在静态与动态、规模视角下，财富预期与农户消费呈同方向变动；在结构视角下，财富预期对生存型支出的影响效应要高于改善型支出。

（5）财富预期对农户消费的影响效应呈现异质性。财富预期对农户消费的影响效应在不同区域上和不同主体上均表现出异质性：财富预期对东部地区的拉动效应要高于中西部地区；财富预期对高收入群体的促进效应要高于中低收入群体。

二、主要创新点

（1）从行为经济学视角探讨了消费信贷财富预期，丰富了财富的内涵与外延。从行为经济学出发，本书通过分析发现借款者对金融活动未来不确定性后果存在明显预期，进而会通过建立心理账户对不同前景下的金融财富价值进行重新判断，最终形成财富预期。可以说，消费信贷产生财富预期的研究成果丰富了财富的内涵和外延，弥补了传统消费信贷财富研究的不足。

（2）构建了财富预期影响消费决策的理论框架，奠定了财富预期效应的微观基础。本书通过捕捉到借款者对未来不确定性后果（前景）的预期，提出通过计算不同前景下金融财富价值，最终加总成财富预期的量化方法，厘清了财富预期影响农户消费决策的逻辑链条，从概念界定—产生过程—量化方法—作用路径建立财富预期效应分析的完整框架，从而为相关实证奠定微观基础。

（3）验证了消费信贷对农户消费财富预期效应的存在，从而弥补了传统消费信贷财富效应研究的不足。本书将借款者对消费信贷的心理活动结果——财富预期作为内生变量纳入农户消费决策函数中，从总体效应和异质性来验证消费信贷的财富预期对农户消费影响效应的存在，得出稳健和可靠的结论，从而弥补了传统消费信贷财富效应研究的不足。

涂先进
2024年3月

Preface

As one of the important measures to ease consumer liquidity tensions，con-sumer credit mainly uses wealth as an intermediary to affect farmers’ consumption． Traditional studies also use utility maximization axioms to discuss the impact of consumer credit on farmers’ consumption decisions，while ignoring borrowers． The impact of psychological anticipation activities based on environmental changes on their consumption decisions． In fact，after obtaining credit financing support，rural household borrowers will adjust their consumption expenditures according to the expectations of various variables that affect consumption decision-making，that is to say，borrowers will have expectations of the future value of financial wealth，so as to adopt consumption that adapts to changes in wealth decision-making behavior．Although behavioral economics focuses on the impact of farmers’ psychological activities on their consumption decisions，it does not pay attention to the borrowers’ wealth expectations and their impact on farmers’ consumption decisions． The reason for this is that the academic discussion of the farmers’ con-sumption decision-making mechanism is mainly based on the assumption of rational people and the utility maximization axiom，while ignoring the impact of borrowers’ complex psychological activities due to changes in the economic envi-ronment on their consumption decisions．

In fact，consumer credit not only generates material（currency）wealth through accounting accounts，but also generates wealth expectations through mental accounts． For farmers，they often face a complicated consumption environ-ment such as unstable income and liquidity constraints． Therefore，in financial activities，the borrower will have future repayment ability or default（perform-ance）risk according to changes in the economic environment． Uncertain economic consequences（Kahneman refers to such uncertain consequences as prospects）are expected． At the same time，mental accounts will be established torevaluate the value of financial wealth under different prospects（value judg-ment），and eventually form wealth expectations． Therefore，wealth expectation mainly meets the other needs of the financial wealth value under the psychological needs of rural household borrowers． It is the result of value judgment on consumer credit in the psychological account． We can say that wealth expectation is the expansion of wealth connotation and extension． The expected result also reflects a decision made by the decision maker on whether there is a future default risk or repayment ability． As a specific mechanism for monitoring and controlling con-sumer behavior，mental accounts psychologically adjust consumption according to the valuation results and set consumption targets to be achieved． Therefore，the borrower’ s formation of wealth expectations through mental accounts will affect the farmers’ consumption decisions． Therefore，the endogenous variable of the borrower’ s wealth expectations should not be exogenously processed for the con-struction of the consumption function． Only the wealth expectations can be incor-porated into the behavioral decision function make the most practical explanation for the decision-making process of farmers’ behavior． But what is the wealth ex-pectation of consumer credit？ How are wealth expectations generated and quanti-fied？ What is the mechanism by which wealth expectations affect farmers’ con-sumption？ Does consumer credit have a wealth expectation effect on rural house-hold consumption？ Existing research does not give clear answers to these ques-tions，and the answers to these questions help to better release the effect of con-sumer finance on consumption．

Based on this，the paper clearly defines the connotation and extension of consumer credit wealth expectation and constructs the mechanism and quantifica-tion of wealth expectationin order to deeply analyze the process of wealth expecta-tion of consumer credit and its impact on farmers’ consumption decisions during financial activities． The method clarifies the logical chain in which wealth expec-tations affect farmers’ consumption decisions． Accordingly，the thesis uses Probit and other quantitative analysis tools to explore the overall effect of consumer credit wealth expectations on farmers’ consumption，and examines the consumer credit wealth expectations from the static and dynamic time dimensions，the survival dimension and the structural dimension of improved spending． Impact on farmers’ consumption． At the same time，considering the regional and rural inter-nal differences in our country，the paper further explores the heterogeneity of the effect of consumer credit wealth expectations on farmers’ consumption，and ana-lyzes consumer credit wealth expectations for farmers’ consumption from different regions in east，middle，and west，and high，middle，and low income groups． Impact． In short，based on the theoretical analysis framework，the research hypothesis is proposed，and the CFPS data is used as the basis for statistical a-nalysis． The main conclusions and innovations of the final paper are as follows：

The main conclusion of the study：

First，it puts forward the realistic background of wealth expectations． After obtaining financial support，farmers borrowers will worry about the uncertain con-sequences（prospects）of default in the future，and thus establish mental accounts to revalue the value of financial wealth under different prospects，ulti-mately forming wealth expectations． In short，borrowers will evaluate financial wealth based on changes in the economic environment to generate wealth expecta-tions．

Second，it clarifies the connotation and quantitative methods of wealth ex-pectations． Wealth expectation is the result of valuing consumer credit in mental accounts，which mainly meets the psychological needs of decision makers and is an extension of wealth connotation and extension． From the perspective of the process of creating wealth expectations，the size of wealth expectations is mainly related to the selection of reference points and the size of sunk costs．

Third，the logical framework of the expected effect of wealth is constructed． Wealth expectation mainly affects consumption scale through reference point effect and sunk cost effect，and influences consumption content choice through cognitive attributes and emotional response to wealth expectation． When wealth perception or optimism，farmers tend to improve consumption，while when debt awareness or pessimism，they tend to survive expenditure．

Fourth，it examines the overall effect of wealth expectations on farmers’ con-sumption． The wealth expectation of consumer credit has a positive impact on farmers’ consumption decisions． From the perspective of static and dynamic and scale，wealth expectations and farmers’ consumption change in the same direction． From a structural perspective，the impact of wealth expectations on subsistence expenditure must be higher than improvement expenditure．

Fifth，he discovered the heterogeneity of the expected effect of wealth． The effect of wealth expectations on the consumption of rural households is heteroge-neous in different regions and in different subjects：the effect of wealth expecta-tions on the eastern region is higher than that of the central and western regions；the effect of wealth expectations on the high-income groups is higher than Low－and middle-income groups．

Research major innovations：

（1）Exploring consumer credit wealth expectations from the perspective of behavioral economics，enriching the connotation and extension of wealth． Starting frombehavioral economics，the paper finds that the borrower has obvious expecta-tions of the future uncertainty of financial activities，and then re-judges the value of financial wealth under different prospects by establishing a psychological account，and finally forms wealth expectations． It can be said that the research on the wealth expectation generated by consumer credit has enriched the connotation and extension of wealth and made up for the deficiencies of traditional consumer credit wealth research．

（2）Constructed a theoretical framework of wealth expectations affecting consumptiondecisions，and laid a micro foundation for the effect of wealth expec-tations． The paper captures the borrower’ s expectations of the future uncertainty consequences（prospects），and proposes a quantitative method for calculating the final value of financial wealth and the aggregate wealth expectation under different prospects． It clarifies the logical chain of wealth expectations affecting farmers’ consumption decisions．Concept definition-production process-quantification meth-od-function path establishes a complete analysis framework for the analysis of wealth expectation effect，thereby laying a micro foundation for relevant empirical evidence．

（3）The existence of the expected effect of consumer credit on the consump-tion wealth of rural households is verified，thereby making up for the lack of research on the wealth effect of traditional consumer credit． The paper incorporates the borrower’ s psychological activity outcomes of consumer credit and wealth expectations as endogenous variables into the farmers’ consumption decision function． From the overall effect and heterogeneity to verify the existence of consumer credit’ s wealth expectations on the impact of farmers’ consumption，we get astable and reliable conclusions，thus making up for the shortcomings of traditional consumer credit wealth effect research．